Süper Lig Schedule Toughness So Far

I calculated the relative schedule-toughness of the teams of the Turkish Spor Toto Süper Lig (the primary football league of Turkey). There are 18 teams and each has played just 10 games so far. That means that some have played more of the tougher teams and some have played more weak teams. It's important to consider this when looking at the standings. For instance, you don't want to judge too harshly a team that is under-performing ranking-wise.

To account for this, I added up the total points of all the teams played so far by all the other teams. This was good, but it's not totally fair. For instance, the worst team in the league can only play teams with more points and therefore their total is likely to be higher than otherwise. Similarly, the best team can only play teams with fewer points and therefore that hurts their total. So to each team's total, I added their own points to factor this in. One thing I did not account for was home vs. away games. For instance, it's possible that a team has had more away games against the tougher teams than the easy teams, which would be a big disadvantage. Possibly at the midpoint of the season, I will analyze this.

Once each team has played 17 games, marking the halfway point of the season, their opponent strength ratings as I have calculated them, will all be the same (Since they will all have played the same teams). In the meantime, I am working on a more sophisticated rating system for Süper League to assist in predicting the outcomes more accurately.

ANYWAY... teams who have had the toughest schedule so far: Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor. Beşiktaş and Fener are both teams that appear to be doing worse than expectations but perhaps a little pressure should be lifted in light of this revelation. Sivas on the other hand is in the relegation zone. Maybe hope is coming their way? At the bottom of the list, you've got Gaziantep and Bucaspor. Buca is hovering just above the relegation zone, but in light of these calculations, I predict that they will find themselves in 2nd-to-last, while Sivas will climb a few slots by mid-season. Gaziantep is near the middle of the table, but they're going to have a tough time ahead. Three of their next four matches  feature Fener, Antalya, and Trabzon. Good luck!